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Rounding up the Usual Suspects
Steve's Livejournal
my Oscars ballot for this year, with results

This is my version of this blank Oscars ballot with my picks and predictions filled in, along with the final results. In addition, I added the sequence of the awards as presented on the broadcast (assuming my notes were correct), below the award names.

I adjusted a couple of my votes after I originally posted my predictions. In both cases I switched from the right guess to a wrong one. I had guessed that Dunkirk would win for film editing, because war movies tend to do well in that category, but I changed my guess because one of our party guests said its editing didn't impress her. And based solely on "Remember Me" being a song from a Pixar movie, I guessed that it would win, but changed my prediction to "Mystery of Love" after hearing them performed on the show.

So, I guessed 16 of 24 categories correctly, which is pretty good for having seen only two of the nominated films, and I would have picked 18 if I hadn't second guessed myself.

I added new feature to this year's version of the ballot:  green  and  red  highlights to indicate which categories I guessed correctly and incorrectly. Also, the number below each category name is the awards' broadcast order.

Category Nominees My Pick* My Prediction Winner
Best motion picture of the year
Call Me by Your Name, Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito
Darkest Hour, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
Dunkirk, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H Hamm Jr, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O'Neill
Phantom Thread, JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi
The Post, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and J Miles Dale
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
Best performance by an actor in a leading role
Timothée Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington for Roman J Israel, Esq
Best performance by an actress in a leading role
Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep for The Post
Best performance by an actor in a supporting role
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
Best performance by an actress in a supporting role
Mary J Blige for Mudbound
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Best achievement in cinematography
Blade Runner 2049, Roger A Deakins
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water, Dan Laustsen
Best achievement in costume design
Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water, Luis Sequeira
Victoria & Abdul, Consolata Boyle
Best achievement in directing
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
Best documentary feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
Faces Places, Agnès Varda, JR, Rosalie Varda
Icarus, Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
Last Men in Aleppo, Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Søren Steen Jespersen
Strong Island, Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
Best documentary short subject
Edith+Eddie, Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Frank Stiefel
Heroin(e), Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
Knife Skills, Thomas Lennon
Traffic Stop, Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
Achievement in film editing
Baby Driver, Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S Riegel
The Shape of Water, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri, Jon Gregory
Best foreign language film of the year
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden
Achievement in makeup and hair styling
Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
Victoria & Abdul, Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Wonder, Arjen Tuiten
Best achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri, Carter Burwell
Best achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Mighty River" from Mudbound, Mary J Blige, Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name, Sufjan Stevens
"Remember Me" from Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"Stand up for Something" from Marshall, Diane Warren (music), Lonnie R Lynn and Diane Warren (lyrics) 2 2
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Best achievement in production design
(production design / set decoration)
Beauty and the Beast, Sarah Greenwood / Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049, Dennis Gassner / Alessandra Querzola
Darkest Hour, Sarah Greenwood / Katie Spencer
Dunkirk, Nathan Crowley / Gary Fettis
The Shape of Water, Paul Denham Austerberry / Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A Melvin
Best animated short film
Dear Basketball, Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
Garden Party, Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
Lou, Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
Negative Space, Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata
Revolting Rhymes, Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
Best live action short film
DeKalb Elementary, Reed Van Dyk
The Eleven O'Clock, Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
My Nephew Emmett, Kevin Wilson Jr
The Silent Child, Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
Watu Wote / All of Us, Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
Best achievement in sound editing
Baby Driver, Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049, Mark Mangini and Theo Green
Dunkirk, Richard King and Alex Gibson
The Shape of Water, Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
Best achievement in sound mixing
Baby Driver, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Mary H Ellis
Blade Runner 2049, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth
Dunkirk, Gregg Landaker, Gary A Rizzo, Mark Weingarten
The Shape of Water, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Glen Gauthier
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Stuart Wilson
Best achievement in visual effects
Blade Runner 2049, Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, Burt Dalton
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould
War for the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist
Writing: screenplay based on material previously produced or published
Call Me by Your Name, Screenplay by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H Weber
Logan, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
Molly's Game, Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Writing: screenplay written directly for the screen
The Big Sick, Written by Emily V Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani 2
Get Out, Written by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Written by Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri, Written by Martin McDonagh
* A dash ( — ) in the My Pick column indicates a film I haven't seen. In most cases, I don't include those films among my predictions.
  A check mark ( √ ) indicates my selection, in both my preferences and predictions.
  A dagger ( † ) indicates a prediction based on buzz, previews, or both, for a movie I haven't seen.
  A digit indicates a runner-up, in cases where I have runner-up preferences or predictions.
 16 right 
 8 wrong 

The categories and 2018 nominees are listed in the order used on the Oscars broadcast nominee list (a link that will probably not work for long after the broadcast). They change the order occasionally (including this year), and they mess with it just enough to make copying the nominees into this ballot a manual process every year. Formal titles for categories (with a few exceptions) are from the IMDB Oscars page (a link that's less likely to break).

Update: I've added a version of this page that includes the nominees in the order the awards were presented on Sunday night's show: ballot with final results, in presentation order.

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